"Notes and Quotes"

One machine can do the work of fifty ordinary men. No machine can do the work of one extraordinary man. - Elbert Hubbard

Monday, December 7, 2009

What the time series data shows depends on when you start the time series.

12/07/09
By Charles Hakes

What the time series data shows depends on when you start the time series.

During the 16th and 17th centuries there was a period called the Little Ice Age when global temperatures were 2-3 degrees F cooler than today. The period began about 1250 A.D. Warming began in about 1850 and continues through today.

Based on these data one could conclude that the earth has been warming at the average rate of 5/8ths of a degree F per century for the last 4 centuries. Before that it was cooling at somewhat the same rate. Within that period there were fluctuations. The earth has actually cooled a little during the past 11 years during which time carbon emissions continued to increase. This is not cause and effect. It shows that there are other influencing factors.

The "warmers" point to 20th century data for their proof. Warmers tend to be liberals. Liberals tend to select only the information that supports their viewpoint rather than doing a thorough analysis before establishing a viewpoint.

You can rig a time series analysis to show almost anything you want if you choose the base time period judiciously. Want to show an increase then choose a low base. Want to show a decrease then choose a high base.

The Little Ice Age wrought these effects on the human environment:

Tree growth was stunted Livestock died Harvests failed Famine and disease, including bubonic plague was rampant Glaciers advanced and sometimes engulfed mountain villages Growing seasons were shorter Farmers abandoned northern lands because they couldn't grow enough For obvious reasons more fuel had to be burned to keep warm, if fuel was even available.

Fur trappers reported that southern Hudson Bay remained frozen 3 weeks longer in the spring. The good news about that is that fur-bearing animals would have responded to the climatic conditions by growing extra-luxurious, and more valuable, coats.

The cause of the Little Ice Age was attributed to less solar activity and more volcanic eruptions.

The cold from the Little Ice Age brought disease, misery, starvation and death to millions.

The warmer temperatures that existed before the Little Ice Age could have been in no way the result of carbon emissions from human devices. As the climate returned to normal in the 19th century there were minor increases in carbon emissions from the steam locomotive and from the conversion to coal heat, and increased industrialization. Few nations were industrialized.

But the 19th century brought a return to global temperatures that had been normal in the period preceding the Little Ice Age.

Costs

Now we are asked to stampede to economic disaster to stem global warming. Any costs incurred by energy companies will be passed on to us, and the current economic depression is a bad time to do that. This means we can expect to pay more for automobile fuel, home heating, and electricity.

We can expect to pay more for any goods that are transported in any form during their production and their delivery to us. We will pay more for groceries because these are transported by truck and diesel fuel costs will be passed on in the price of the groceries. Anything that moves by car, truck, train, steamship, or airplane will bear an additional cost due to the global warming initiative.

Anything that uses electricity in its manufacture, unless nuclear- generated, will bear an added cost. This means we will pay more because of the electricity consumed by the machines of production, and also more to keep the lights on in the office and run the elevators.

The global warming summit people are characterizing this summit as "our last chance" to do something about it. I'm not sure what they mean by this. They only have enough money to have one summit on the issue? We will all be under water from melting glaciers next year? They are only going to try to address the issue once and then are going to quit?

I don't like this cheap "last chance to buy at these prices" bum's rush we are being given. A lot of buffalo died acting on their last chance to escape the Indians.

For a good debunk on the subject of global warming go to: http://www.isthereglobalwarming.com/

For energy companies, global warming has now become a PR initiative, giving them the opportunity to advertise how responsible they are by addressing global warming. It matters little whether global warming is a real issue. It is perceived by many as a real issue, therefore energy companies have to treat it as such. They have two choices: (1) Communicate that they are addressing the issue. This would help their corporate image. (2) Declare it to be a non-issue. This would hurt their image because of the many people who would think they are lying about it.

By addressing it as an issue they are validating it as an issue.

The only significant evidence of global warming that I've noticed is that snow is not as deep. 70 years ago snow used to be knee-deep. Now it's only ankle-deep.

As I was stringing some outdoor Christmas lights a couple days ago with the wind chill in the teens I was mumbling to myself between chattering teeth: "Come on global warming. I need you NOW!"


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"Notes and Quotes" Archive

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